Threat Perception and Resistance Dynamics: The Duration and Termination of Resistance Movements

"Threat Perception and Resistance Dynamics: The Duration and Termination of Resistance Movements"

Sophie Lee (Duke University)

Abstract:

Recent quantitative conflict studies examine violent and nonviolent resistance together as comparable units of analysis. However, an overarching theory that explains the duration and outcomes of both types of resistance movements has not been offered. I examine the impact of the threat posed by the opposition on the duration and the outcome of resistance movements. I argue that the opposition that poses a level of threat greater than the cost of policy change gains concession in a prolonged movement. Oppositions that are unable to sustain their activities do not constitute a credible threat and therefore are defeated rather swiftly. I test this argument on 250 post-World War oppositional movements around the world and find support. This research sheds light on how the opposition’s threat capability affects the duration and outcome of both violent and nonviolent political movements.

Discussants:

Erica Chenoweth (University of Denver)

Manus Midlarsky (Rutgers University)

Bernd Berber (New York University)

Amanda Licht (Binghamton University)

OPSC Coordinator:

Emily Ritter (University of California Merced)

Graduate Assistant:

Peter D. Carey II (University of California Merced)