History and Support for Settlement of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

"History and Support for Settlement of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine" by Konstantin Ash (University of Central Florida)

Abstract:

"How does collective memory of historical events affect public preferences for settling ongoing international conflict? Russia's invasion of Ukraine allows for an assessment of public opinion on blame for the conflict and support for different ways to end the war. Moreover, history played a considerable role in the propaganda efforts of both sides leading up to and during the war. This study uses a pre-registered survey experiment of Ukrainians in the regions of the country not controlled by Russia or engaged in fighting in late May and early June 2022. Respondents were randomly assigned one of three primes about historical events: the UPA insurgency against the USSR, the Holodomor famine and Ukrainian service in the Red Army during World War II and then asked about their support for several concessions to Russia, whether they thought the Ukrainian military could win outright and who they blamed for the conflict. The pre-registered expectations were that priming on UPA and Holodomor would decrease support for peaceful settlement and increase support for seeking outright military victory, while priming on World War II would have no effect. Respondents primed with the UPA insurgency were significantly less likely to support making Russian a second language or conceding either Donbas or Crimea to Russia to settle the conflict. Respondents primed with Ukrainian service in the Red Army during World War II were not significantly more likely to make concessions and significantly more likely to blame the Russian government and the Russian people for the conflict. The treatment effects are not significantly related to family history with the events, suggesting collective, rather than personal, memories drive the results. The findings underscore the relevance of historical narratives in shaping public support for seeking either compromise or military victory in an international conflict."

Discussant:

Tolga Sınmazdemir (SOAS, University of London)

OPSC Coordinator:

Chelsea Estancona (University of South Carolina)