Targeted Sanctions, Resource Substitution, and Violence Against Civilians: Localized Evidence...

"Targeted Sanctions, Resource Substitution, and Violence Against Civilians: Localized Evidence from African States" by Jerry Urtuzuastigui and Ore Koren (Indiana University at Bloomington)

Abstract: Since the 1990s, the UN Security Council has markedly increased its use of targeted sanctions against actors involved in intrastate conflict. Yet, we know very little about their unintended impacts, especially when it comes to the risk of violence against civilians. Assessing the effect of targeted sanctions on local violence dynamics, this study provides important insights on these trends. We begin by theorizing whether and when imposing resource-constraining sanctions on armed actors may compel them to locate and seize non-sanctioned valuable agricultural resources for the purposes of replenishing lost revenues. Empirically, we develop new data on violence by sanctioned groups by matching UN sanction data with information on local attacks on civilians recorded by the UCDP GED across the entire African continent. We then leverage newly released 0.5-degree data to examine how monthly cash crop productivity affected political violence patterns between 2006 and 2013, comparing violence against civilian trends by sanctioned actors to those by unsanctioned and extra-sanctioned (i.e., sanctioned actors before and after they are sanctioned) actors. In line with our expectations, we confirm a substitution dynamic whereby violence by sanctioned groups intensifies in lo- cations where and following months when valuable agricultural resources are abundant, while violence by unsanctioned and extra-sanctioned groups does not. These results are robust to key confounders and numerous sensitivity analyses.

Discussants:

Brendan Skip Mark (University of Rhode Island)

Menevis Cilizoglu (St. Olaf College)

OPSC Coordinator:

Chelsea Estancona (University of South Carolina)