Make Two Democracies and Call Me in the Morning: Endogenous Regime Type and the Democratic Peace

"Make Two Democracies and Call Me in the Morning: Endogenous Regime Type and the Democratic Peace"

Daina Chiba (Unaffiliated) and Erik Gartzke (University of California, San Diego)

Abstract:

The “democratic peace” — the “law like” observation that democracies are less likely to fight each other — has precipitated extensive inquiry and debate about its causes. Yet, liberal government is a relatively new or infrequent phenomenon in world affairs. Democracy must itself be generated by other variables, some of which appear likely

to influence international conflict. There is thus a problem of endogeneity if peace and democracy share common predecessors. Estimating the impact of democracy on peace is especially difficult if some of the causes shared by both variables are unobservable. We seek to address possible endogeneity between regime type and conflict with an instrumental variables approach. Utilizing average national fertility rate as an instrument, we find that joint democracy is not directly pacifying. To the contrary, democratic countries appear more likely to attack other democracies. Our findings invite a reconsideration of theories linking dyadic democracy with interstate peace.

Discussants:

Jeffery Carter (Appalachian State University)

Gabriel Leon (King's College London)

Florian Hollenbach (Texas A&M University)

Andrew Owsiak (University of Georgia)

OPSC Coordinator:

Brad Smith (Vanderbilt University)