Explaining and Measuring Power Laws, Protest, and Conflict
Shane Steinert-Threlkeld
Universiteit van Amsterdam
Zachary C. Steinert-Threlkeld
University of California Los Angeles
Abstract:
The distribution of connections in social networks accounts for the size of protests. Moreover, the distribution of connections and protests follows a fat tail, and we present evidence that that tail is probably a power law. The existence of power laws has signif- icant theoretical and empirical rami cations, so we explain tests to distinguish between two particular fat tails, lognormal and power law distributions. Grounding protest mo- bilization in network structure clari es some puzzles, such as the apparently random response of protestors to repression, and suggests tests for others, such as the impact of social media on protest. It also generates testable implications for the distribution of protests across regime types and technological eras. Analyses of the distribution of civil war intensity, terrorist attack outcomes, violent events, and interstate war also nds support for fat tail outcomes, especially power laws. The paper concludes with a discussion of whether power laws may explain phenomena of interest to scholars of international relations and American politics.
Discussants:
Arthur Spirling (New York University)
Charles Crabtree (University of Michigan)
Elaine Denny (University of California San Diego)
Camber Warren (Naval Postgraduate School)
OPSC Coordinator:
Emily Hencken Ritter (University of California Merced)
Graduate Assistant:
Peter D. Carey II (University of California Merced)
