International Competition and the Onset of Civil War

"International Competition and the Onset of Civil War"

Hans-Inge Langø

University of Texas at Austin

Abstract:

A country’s international environment and relationship with its neighbors can affect its risk of civil war. Domestic actors have expectations about interventions, so potential foreign intervention can cause the outbreak of domestic conflict. Intervention, and thus civil war, depends on the political distance between a country and its neighbors. However, the level of international competition amongst the neighbors determines who intervenes where. I estimate several empirical models, and find a country’s political distance to its neighbors and neighborhood heterogeneity increase the risk of civil war, but their effects are conditional. Politically moderate countries in heterogeneous areas are at the highest risk of experiencing civil war, while political outliers in homogenous neighborhoods are also at increased risk of conflict. These findings have implications for how we think about the causes of civil war and the need for nested models of conflict.

Discussants:

Andrew Enterline (University of North Texas)

Brandon Kinne (University of California, Davis)

Elizabeth Menninga (University of Iowa)

Jesse Johnson (University of Kentucky)

Paul Poast (University of Chicago)

OPSC Coordinator:

Emily Hencken Ritter (Vanderbilt University)

Graduate Assistant:

Heesun Yoo (Vanderbilt University)