The Curse of Geography: How Governments Preempt Secession Attempts

"The Curse of Geography: How Governments Preempt Secession Attempts"

Rob Williams

Washington University in St. Louis

Abstract:

There are many regions that meet the necessary conditions for sovereign governance in the world, but few secessionist conflicts. I argue that this relative paucity of secessionist violence is the result of government preemption of potential secessionist movements. Using cross-national geospatial data, I find that governments develop higher levels of state capacity in more governable, and thus more secession-prone, regions. The same factors that make territory attractive for secession also make governments willing to work to retain control of that territory, suggesting that potential secessionists confront many of the same dilemmas as states.