The Political Origins of Rebellion

"The Political Origins of Rebellion”

Gary Uzonyi (University of Tennessee) & Ore Koren (University of Indiana)

Abstract:

The emphasis in recent decades on weak state capacity as an explanation of civil war detracts from an important fact: some of the deadliest and most protracted rebellions since WWII arose not where the state was weak, but rather in areas of significant state power. This study challenges the predominance-of-peripheral-conflict paradigm by disentangling rebel formation from civil war onset and emphasizing the political origins of rebellion, as reflected in the location where the group chooses to form. Quantitative analyses show that three group types—military-, social interest-, and political party-based groups—are more likely to form in large cities, especially the capital, rather than the rural countryside. Conversely, rebels representing refugees are much more likely to arise abroad, while rebel-splinter groups form rurally. This study advances the field’s understanding of a neglected, yet surprisingly large number of violent rebellions that current mainstream approaches cannot effectively explain.

Discussants:

Kathleen Cunningham (University of Maryland)

Janet Lewis (George Washington University)

Jessica Maves Braithwaite (University of Arizona)

OPSC Coordinator:

Cassy Dorff (Vanderbilt University)