The Ethnicization of Syria's Conflict - A social media analysis

"The Ethnicization of Syria's Conflict - A social media analysis"

Alexandra Siegel (Immigration Policy Lab, Stanford University),

Yael Zeira (University of Mississippi)

and Deen Freelon (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)

Abstract:

Ethnic conflicts are often seen as especially violent and intractable. But how and why do some conflicts become “ethnic”? We develop a research design for a large-scale, systematic study of the ethnicization of conflict. We analyze the online and real-world spread of ethnic narratives, frames, and interpretations of the Syrian civil war, which began as an anti-regime revolution and took on an increasingly ethno-sectarian hue. We develop a new conceptual and methodological framework that systematically maps Syria’s pre-conflict ethnic structure and uses Twitter data, crowdsourced surveys of Syrians, and machine learning methods to measure ethnicization. Drawing on this framework, we empirically demonstrate the ethnicization of the Syrian conflict over time and plan to conduct network and spatial analysis to identify the key drivers of this process. This approach enables us to advance the constructivist literature on ethnicity and conflict by empirically testing the drivers of the ethnicization and de-ethnicization of conflict. Taking advantage of our temporally granular, networked, and georeferenced data, this project is also expected to contribute to a growing body of literature using social media data to study the microdynamics of conflict more broadly.

Discussants:

Johanna Birnir (University of Maryland)

Anita Gohdes (Hertie School of Governance)

Laura Paler (University of Pittsburgh)

OPSC Coordinator:

Cassy Dorff (Vanderbilt University)