Foreign Policy Expertise

"Foreign Policy Expertise" by Matt Malis (New York University)

Abstract:

"The 9/11 commission report cited bureaucratic vacancies as a contributing factor in undermining the United States' national security and preparedness for international crises. Today the vacancy rate in national security positions is nearly twice what it was twenty years ago. Do bureaucratic personnel meaningfully affect foreign policy, and if so, how? This paper develops a theory of the intragovernmental politics of foreign policy, examining the influence of individual agents in the policy process and how that influence varies as a function of appointment status. Empirically, I focus on US ambassadorial appointments, and leverage the State Department's routinized rotation schedule as a natural experiment to isolate exogenous variation in ambassadorial vacancy. I show that acting officials (who serve during vacancies) play a less active role in internal advocacy over policy, as measured by diplomatic cable traffic; that they receive less access to top-level decision makers, as documented in presidential meeting schedules; and that they are less effective in getting their host countries' concerns onto the US foreign policy agenda, as demonstrated by written presidential orders and presidential diplomatic travel. This study provides a new perspective on the domestic determinants of international relations, tracing the impact of individual agents on patterns of international conflict and cooperation through their influence over the internal workings of the foreign policy process."

Discussants:

Michael Joseph (University of California, San Diego)

Elizabeth Saunders (Georgetown University)

Dan Reiter (Emory University)

OPSC Coordinator:

Brad Smith (Vanderbilt University)